DRAM Talk

Falling DRAM prices, again oversupply

Source from the blog 'DRAM Talk'

In the grand scheme of the DRAM and memory module market, there have been recent fluctuations in the market prices caused by but not limited to high demand and low production of DRAM chips followed by an over production. Memory makers show concerns over the falling prices in the DRAM industry due to a large surplus of memory amidst a slightly weakening demand for memory upgrades. In recent years computer prices have seen an unexpected increase based on the fact that DRAM prices have been at higher levels. Price fixing is another underlined cause of the computer module price increase. Close to 80 percent of DRAM chips are sold to PC vendors while only 20 percent are sold in the spot market. Several large memory manufacturers have been involved in a lawsuit over price fixing in the DRAM market sending prices soaring and passing those costs to computer vendors and consumers. Earlier this year because of the high demand and a low supply of chips where was cause for a boost in chip production triggering a post-shortage excess in unsold chips and could potentially decline prices for the rest of the year. Because DRAM accounts for nearly 20 percent of a personal computer’s cost, declining chip prices lowers the prices of PCs and signals a turn in the market. The accumulation of competition between DRAM makers should further assist in lowering prices for memory to ensure that trend holds until the end of the year. The price decrease in chips should boost the personal computers value and spark a slight shift in computer sales which in turn should help memory sales when it is time to upgrade their newer machines. Brighter spots in the market remain server modules as well as x4 components.

The DRAM memory market is up!

As the market continues to move up, coincidentally a brief power outage at some Samsung Electronics memory chip lines in Gilheung, Gyeonggi Province Wednesday is expected to push up prices of computer and flash memory chips in the short term, analysts said. 128×8 1Gb DDR2 and DDR3 components are over $3.00 now while 2GB modules move over 10 percent in the past week. Supply is short and tier OEMs have lines down. Signals of prices approaching $60.00 for 2GB SODIMMs are apparent for DDR2 and DDR3.Online retailers are moving up as well. Jumps on eTT based 2GB PC-6400 200-PIN SODIMM have move up $10.00 per stick on some sites.The 256×4 DDR2 component has traded well this past week. 4GB FBDIMM and Registered are becoming short.

SO-DIMM memory module prices and supply show some heat

Folks still can care about a few things and at under $30.00 online the 2GB DDR2 SO-DIMM seems to be one of them. Online sales have been brisk on 2GB PC2-5300 and 2GB PC2-6400 SO-DIMM memory module upgrades. A reasonable investment to max out a year old notebook. Additionally, many new machines are stock at 4GB 2X 2GB new from the factory. DDR3 204-PIN SO-DIMM modules in both 2GB and 4GB  are shorter as well. In the spot market the “Kings” have always traded higher end SO-DIMM modules as they are usually short or drop faster than housing prices in Socal, yet tend to attract the better quality customers. Today there is also a bit of buzz and a few specific OEM based part number specific requirements for other DDR2 server modules. Tiger Direct does not seem to be offering unreal rebate programs pushing prices well under sub market and back door excess cost, that is a good signal as well.

Are Memory Module Prices are poised to explode?

Chattering is being heard around the DRAM maker water coolers about DE-COMMITTING on prices and supply to tier one computer OEMs like HP, Dell and others. With the beating the likes of Samsung, Hynix, Micron, Qimonda and Elpida have taken it seems they have perhaps pulled out the stick to draw a line in the DRAM sand in the aim of higher prices. DDR (1) is hot in the broker and spot markets, with resellers scambling to aquire 1GB Unbuffered DIMMs at prices above $30.00 for pulled, refurbished and third party modules while quotes on 1GB Unbuffered DDR2 DIMMs are $11.00 plus.It seems that finally the 64-bit Vista and hunger for larger memory has finally started to grab, to bad the DRAM guys had two years of over production.  If DRAM suppliers cut supply and claim to have no parts tier one OEMs will move to large independent stocking distributors to find supply and the market could run up.Online prices for DDR at online retailers have moved up in the past weeks. Many brokers have lost edge and or are out of the business in the past year or so, which will create less spot market speculation which will keep the cards in the hands of the DRAM makers. 

Is the rumor of lack of Qimonda production of memory chips at Dresden swaying the memory market?

As the mass production of memory chips at Dresden is on hold starting April 1, 2009. The memory market seems stable to flat. If any shortness appears, it may only show in higher end 4GB DDR3 SO-DIMM and Unbuffered modules as Micron shows tighter supply. With the new release of the Mac Pro and later generation iMac and MacBook Pro computers from Apple and higher powerered XPS machines from Dell the market may be stable on higher density module upgrades. Hynix seems to be the only avail supplier of genuine factory original modules and prices are all over $300.00-$330.00…

Took time off the blog but the memory world is the same and worse

It has been a while but as those who are in the memory market can attest, the market is worse than ever.  1Gb DDR DIMM modules are below $10.oo now.  What kind of health is the market in now?  The value has moved from $120.00 in January 2007 to now sub $10.00.  All module OEMs are moving both DRAM chips and modules below cost.  Some say the market is wrecked and historically at its worst point ever.  With the global economy collapsing demand and flooded excess markets the ability for average selling prices to rebound seems bleak.

Qimonda Buried Wordline Technology? What for? Do we need it?

“This new technology has the potential to deliver improvements in our productivity and cost per bit that are unprecedented in our company’s history,” said Kin Wah Loh, President and CEO of Qimonda AG. OK AGREED, THEY’VE LOST MONEY AND WANT TO IMPROVE PROCESSES, BUT TODAY 64X8 QIMONDA CHIPS ARE AT .95EA.  HOW MUCH SHOULD THEY BE? .25EA??? “We are the first in the industry to unveil a DRAM technology roadmap down to the 30nm generation, enabling cell sizes as small as 4F(2). The introduction is the result of our continuous innovation as a leader in the development of memory products. This step also opens up further partnering opportunities.”  THE COMPUTER MARKET IS STALLING AS IT IS….  NEW MACHINES ARE STOCKED WITH 2GBS OF MEMORY, DO WE NEED SMALLER CHIPS, BETTER COSTS OR IS THIS JUST A RACE TO REDUCE COSTS IN AN EFFORT TO TRY TO MAKE MORE MONEY?  THE HEALTH OF THE DRAM MARKET IS SUSPECT AS IT IS.
Qimonda targets to start mass production of 46nm Buried Wordline DRAM technology in the second half of 2009. This node will offer more than twice the bits per wafer over the company’s 58nm trench technology.  OH YIPPEE MORE PARTS THEN WE NEED… The company expects an additional one-time investment of approximately Euro 100 million in total during financial years 2009 and 2010 to convert its existing in-house trench capacities to the Buried Wordline technology, which it expects to finance from its cash flows. TELL ME HOW THEY ARE INVESTING WHEN THEY ARE LIGHTING DOLLAR BILLS ON FIRE AS IT IS.  This relatively low level of additional investment is possible by leveraging a combination of Qimonda’s Buried Wordline and lean manufacturing process with a mainstream stack capacitor.
FUNNY VERY FUNNY ERRRRR, NOT

The memory market has many markets

The past few weeks is more of an idication of the growing changes in the computer memory market. eTT chips are their own market. Used for mostly low cost upgrade solutions and made with x8 chips, these are always under pressure as the Taiwanese DRAM makers over produce and have zero access to the tier one computer companies demands. Mostly used in China and remarked with major brand names and house brands.
Original factory UDIMM and SODIMM markets are changing with the times. Desktops are on the decrease in demand while notebooks and mobile computers are driving the market place.
Registered and FBDIMM too have an entire market structure. This market has gone up recently while the tougher to procure x4 chips have remained the manufacturers last stand in the dumping wars. eTT and uTT components do not cloud this market and again black top or OEM marked 4gb FBDIMMs are not exactly what HP is using these days.
Niches exist across the board in regards to specification and brands. Each market within this one memory module market is going its own direction and has its own unique demands.

TW back to work.. and Mira showed $1.0 and $2.10 eTT 667MHz chips

Our take today is market is weak for spot players but remains poised to increase in overall consumption.   For the past week or so considering how slow it has been for the spot market, prices have remained semi-stable.  Certain clients and sectors are still buying.  Nuff said…..we watch….we listen….we learn….

Asia is on vacation, Kingston and other thrid party memory players clean up…

This week has been flat in the U.S. and prices remained stable while commodity modules moved slowly. On the other side, components have been shipping from large brokers to top third party memory makers such as Kingston. Whispers of $2.65 128×8 667MHz component trades show a real indicator of market intent. This is a growing indication that the market is set to take off some observers claim. Sources from Qimonda and Micron both claim that the market is set to rise quickly and experience that once in while boom… Samsung has shown little to no offers as well. FBDIMMs and RDIMMs are set to jump up, while off the radar x4 components have moved sharply since mid December, in contrast the lower end players watch eTT and high volume x8 chips remain sluggish and choppy.
Signs of some health to the market are returning as DRAM makers are not in a need to move pinch and thus not willing to bargain on high-end modules.